Hillary Clinton is in much better shape with a key demographic than she ever was in 2008

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One of the potential hiccups with an all-but-certain Hillary Clinton campaign for president in 2016 is a perceived problem with young voters.


There’s good precedent for this perception: In 2008, the last time she ran for president, Clinton was walloped by President Barack Obama among youth voters in the Democratic primary. He tripled her share of the youth vote in Iowa, prompting a top Clinton adviser to famously say, “Our people look like caucus-goers and his people look like they are 18.”

But a new poll released Friday finds that, so far, Clinton is avoiding that trip heading into 2016. The poll, from the University of New Hampshire and WMUR, shows Clinton with not only a commanding lead among young voters in the state. It also shows young voters as her biggest supporters.


The 18-34 age group is the one that appears most firm about voting for Clinton in a 2016 Democratic primary. Three-quarters of that group says they would vote for her if the Democratic primary were held today. Just 9 percent choose Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), a liberal firebrand who has repeatedly said she won’t run for president. And 4 percent would vote for Vice President Joe Biden.

The results align with those from Fusion’s Massive Millennial Poll, which surveyed 1000 people aged 18-34 about everything from politics to dating to race issues. The poll found 38 percent of the millennials surveyed — including 57 percent of millennial Democrats surveyed in the poll.

Clinton has bigger problems — if they can be called problems — with the 50-and-over crowd of the possible Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, who carried her to a surprise victory there in 2008. That year, more than two-thirds of Democratic primary voters were over the age of 40. She beat Obama by at least 9 points among the age 40-49, 50-64, and 65-and-over age groups.

This time, according to the UNH/WBUR poll, her lead is smaller than with young voters. But she still leads Warren by at least 30 points in each age group.


Some liberal groups have continued their efforts to push Warren into the race, even as she has become more firm in saying she will not challenge Clinton. This week, the “Run Warren Run” campaign — which is being led by the groups Democracy for America and MoveOn.org Political Action — announced the opening of a field office in New Hampshire.

The group, which already has offices in the early-caucus state of Iowa, said it plans to open more offices in New Hampshire. It also hired a New Hampshire state director for its campaign. It’s being led mostly by younger activists who want Clinton to face a primary challenge.


Brett LoGiurato is the senior national political correspondent at Fusion, where he covers all things 2016. He'll give you everything you need to know about politics, with a healthy side of puns.

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