In the next four years, Hispanics will account for over 40 percent of the increase in U.S. employment, according to a new report from research group IHS Economics.
And after that, their dominance of the labor market will be even more pronounced: the Hispanic population will account for over three-fourths of U.S. employment growth between 2019 and 2034, IHS says. That’s an 11 million increase in Hispanic employment out of an economy-wide gain of 14 million.
The new IHS data show how reliant the U.S. economy will soon become on Hispanic employees. This is all happening against the backdrop of a rapidly aging non-Hispanic U.S. workforce. And although the recession cut into Hispanic growth rates in the U.S., theirs is still outpacing everyone else’s.
From 2014 to 2034, IHS projects Hispanic employment growth will average 2.6 percent per year, while employment growth for everyone else is only expected to grow 0.2 percent after 2020.
Twenty years from now, Hispanics will comprise 23 percent of all employed Americans, compared with 16.3 percent today.
Non-Hispanics cannot expect much help from their younger peers in the labor force: the number of 16- to 64-year-old “core working age” non-Hispanics will actually decline through 2029.
Instead, those ranks will increasingly be filled by the core Hispanic population, which will grow at an average annual rate of 2.0% over the 20-year forecast period.
As a result of declining birth rates across the board, IHS says, immigration will feature as prominently as ever in creating and filling U.S. jobs.
“As the growth of the population of working age slows and the annual increment to the labor force declines, immigration will become more important as a source of employment growth,” IHS says. “By 2020 labor force growth is expected to slow to the point that the annual change in the labor force is roughly equal to the amount of net migration.”
IHS suggests we should embrace these trends.
“Higher immigration and the greater potential for labor force growth that it brings can stimulate increased investment and improved productivity,” they write.
Rob covers business, economics and the environment for Fusion. He previously worked at Business Insider. He grew up in Chicago.