Before the presidential primaries even began, demographic experts were opining on the enormous challenge Republicans were facing with the growing population of Latino voters. One frequently cited analysis from the group Latino Decisions found that the Republican nominee would need more than 40% of the Latino vote to win the election.
Unless you've been in a coma for eight months, you can probably guess what comes next: A survey commissioned by Univision and released Thursday finds that Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton among registered Latino voters 67% to 19%.
So if Trump wants to hit the demographic benchmark that many believe he needs to hit, he'll have to double his support and then some. It won't be easy: According to the same survey, 79% of registered Latino voters oppose building a border wall between the United States and Mexico, one of Trump's signature policy positions. In addition, almost three-fourths of Latino voters polled said that they believe Trump is a racist.
The news isn't all bad for Trump. The survey found that a plurality of registered Latino voters, 42%, believe Hillary Clinton is a liar, compared with 39% who said she is not and 19% who said they were unsure.
What's more, recent research has called into question some of the conventional wisdom about what kind of demographics make for a winning electoral coalition. An analysis of exit polling by Nate Cohn in The New York Times last month found that Latino voters may be overrepresented in the data, which suggests that a Republican candidate could win in November with less than 40% of the vote.
Still, it's hard to imagine that a candidate can succeed with less than a fifth of the largest non-white population in the United States. And the percentage of Latino voters who show up to the polls may be bigger this year than ever. News organizations have reported historic increases in Latino voter registration in 2016, and Univision's poll finds that 97% of registered Latino voters say they are very likely or somewhat likely to vote come Nov. 8.